WSH beat CBJ 4–3. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Aliaksei Protas scored at 13:16 of the second, moving WSH’s win probability from 53% to 75%. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:27 | CBJ | Johnny GaudreauPP from Boone Jenner, Damon Severson | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 5:05 |  WSH | Sonny Milano from Aliaksei Protas, Hendrix Lapierre | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 13:16 | WSH | Aliaksei Protas from Trevor van Riemsdyk, Hendrix Lapierre | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 15:47 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Dylan Strome | 1–3 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 7:01 | CBJ | Ivan Provorov from Cole Sillinger | 2–3 | 5% → 20% |
| P3 13:34 | WSH | Hendrix Lapierre from Sonny Milano, Aliaksei Protas | 2–4 | 87% → 98% |
| P3 15:48 | CBJ | Justin Danforth from Sean Kuraly, Zach Werenski | 3–4 | 1% → 10% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 19:44 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.11 | +0.76 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 22:04 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.28 | +0.33 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 9:33 | +0.22 | +0.14 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 13:50 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.22 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Jiricek D | 13:42 | +0.16 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 14:21 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 15:25 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.16 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 21:34 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 13:32 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 13:33 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 16:26 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 25:11 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 20:16 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 15:54 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 19:19 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 12:21 | −0.18 | +0.15 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 15:31 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 12:57 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 58:47 | −2.05 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliaksei Protas L | 9:10 | 1 | 2 | +0.72 | +0.02 | +0.43 | +0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sonny Milano L | 12:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.46 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 10:12 | 1 | 2 | +0.57 | +0.03 | +0.33 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 15:02 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.05 | +0.37 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 14:25 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 18:09 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.22 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 21:42 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 19:54 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:40 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 24:42 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 19:36 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Lucas Johansen D | 7:10 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 15:20 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 13:50 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 18:43 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 19:58 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 15:44 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 11:32 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 60:00 | −0.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.