NYR beat NJD 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 3.1, NJD 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jimmy Vesey scored at 17:11 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 49% to 91%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:37 | NYR | Artemi PanarinPP from Vincent Trocheck, Erik Gustafsson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:25 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Dougie Hamilton, Jonas Siegenthaler | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 14:11 | NYR | Jimmy Vesey from Braden Schneider, Zac Jones | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 19:12 | NJD | Ondrej PalatPP from Jesper Bratt, Tyler Toffoli | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P3 1:17 | NJD | Erik Haula from Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 11:04 | NYR | Artemi Panarin from Vincent Trocheck | 3–3 | 16% → 48% |
| P3 17:11 | NYR | Jimmy Vesey from Tyler Pitlick, Vincent Trocheck | 4–3 | 49% → 91% |
| P3 18:27 | NYR | Blake WheelerEN unassisted | 5–3 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin L | 22:24 | 2 | +1.76 | +0.31 | +1.19 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 11:14 | 2 | +1.51 | +0.09 | +1.44 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zac Jones D | 14:02 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 21:40 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 12:34 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 13:13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 20:58 | 3 | −0.01 | +0.34 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Braden Schneider D | 15:39 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 10:58 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 23:03 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 12:37 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:38 | −0.21 | +0.18 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 20:24 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 19:38 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 12:11 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 18:27 | −0.33 | −0.13 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 14:35 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.26 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 17:47 | −0.40 | −0.09 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +0.13 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Palat L | 22:09 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 22:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.06 | +0.48 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 |
| Erik Haula L | 19:35 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.14 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 20:34 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 15:11 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 11:15 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 2:55 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Marino D | 22:52 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 15:28 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 18:33 | 2 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 17:17 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 13:36 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 11:07 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 10:07 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:57 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.09 | −0.41 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 17:23 | −0.44 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 18:55 | −0.47 | +0.07 | −0.51 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:42 | 1 | −0.60 | −0.08 | −0.50 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 57:36 | −0.28 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.