WPG beat BUF 3–2. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cole Perfetti scored at 2:12 of the second, moving WPG’s win probability from 53% to 72%. Connor Hellebuyck saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:12 |  WPG | Cole Perfetti from Vladislav Namestnikov, Neal Pionk | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 4:33 | WPG | Mason Appleton from Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry | 0–2 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 4:56 | BUF | Alex Tuch unassisted | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 8:12 | WPG | Nikolaj Ehlers from Nino Niederreiter, Vladislav Namestnikov | 1–3 | 73% → 88% |
| P3 1:00 | BUF | JJ Peterka from Rasmus Dahlin, Zach Benson | 2–3 | 8% → 23% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch R | 20:29 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.16 | +0.62 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 28:07 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.33 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 12:18 | +0.16 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Johnson D | 16:54 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 14:31 | +0.14 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 18:58 | +0.08 | +0.26 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 13:18 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:24 | +0.02 | +0.21 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Owen Power D | 21:55 | −0.00 | +0.22 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 14:43 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.26 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 12:34 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 23:28 | −0.10 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 17:23 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 11:50 | −0.17 | +0.19 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 11:18 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:34 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:18 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 8:38 | −0.73 | +0.11 | −0.63 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Comrie G | 59:20 | −0.79 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Perfetti C | 13:30 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.11 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 18:02 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.16 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 24:07 | +0.61 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.56 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:12 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.19 | +0.89 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 8:32 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 10:12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 22:29 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 20:50 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 19:09 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 22:32 | −0.15 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Gustafsson C | 9:36 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 20:07 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 13:16 | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 14:48 | 2 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Logan Stanley D | 12:31 | −0.25 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:50 | 2 | −0.35 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 18:18 | −0.36 | −0.05 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 15:59 | 1 | −0.66 | −0.16 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | +1.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.