ARI beat CBJ 3–2. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Logan Cooley scored on the power play at 9:39 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 50% to 80%. Connor Ingram saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:45 | CBJ | Damon Severson from Dmitri Voronkov, Ivan Provorov | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 6:20 |  ARI | Barrett Hayton from Michael Kesselring, Mathew Dumba | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 9:39 | ARI | Logan CooleyPP from Sean Durzi, Clayton Keller | 2–1 | 50% → 80% |
| P3 10:07 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Nick Bjugstad | 3–1 | 80% → 96% |
| P3 18:03 | CBJ | Damon SeversonPP from Zach Werenski, Alexandre Texier | 3–2 | 0% → 7% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:09 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.26 | +0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 7:57 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.08 | +0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 6:04 | +0.16 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 11:32 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.18 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 24:59 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 23:01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 21:01 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 17:50 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.33 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Joshua Brown D | 18:08 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 19:44 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 17:15 | −0.08 | +0.14 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 19:25 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 14:38 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.29 | +0.33 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:47 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 12:34 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 14:46 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 12:16 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 15:54 | −0.49 | −0.22 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 60:00 | +1.61 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Severson D | 21:33 | 2 | +1.70 | +0.05 | +1.71 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 20:06 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 17:12 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 21:38 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 14:42 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 25:40 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 10:40 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 15:53 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trey Fix-Wolansky R | 12:32 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 13:49 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 12:36 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 12:30 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| David Jiricek D | 13:37 | −0.32 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 16:05 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.10 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 17:51 | −0.41 | −0.09 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 16:36 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.05 | −0.49 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 19:00 | −0.54 | +0.00 | −0.55 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 19:08 | −0.90 | −0.03 | −1.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 56:40 | +0.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.