EDM beat SEA 4–3 in overtime. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Evander Kane scored at 2:57 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:21 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 7:20 | SEA | Jared McCann from Jordan Eberle, Jamie Oleksiak | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 9:24 | SEA | Pierre-Edouard Bellemare from Tye Kartye, Vince Dunn | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 17:21 | SEA | Alexander Wennberg from Eeli Tolvanen, Oliver Bjorkstrand | 3–1 | 71% → 88% |
| P3 13:28 | EDM | Evander Kane from Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm | 3–2 | 2% → 16% |
| P3 19:14 | EDM | Evander KanePP from Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 3–3 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 2:57 | EDM | Evander Kane from Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:08 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.05 | +0.53 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 10:39 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.34 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Jared McCann L | 16:55 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.07 | +0.56 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Schultz D | 16:49 | +0.19 | +0.05 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 23:34 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tye Kartye L | 9:17 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 11:55 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 16:27 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 16:15 | −0.11 | +0.15 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 18:46 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 19:50 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 18:47 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 17:22 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.14 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:57 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 15:49 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:42 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 23:20 | −0.57 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 16:58 | 1 | −0.64 | +0.05 | −0.69 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 62:18 | −0.44 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evander Kane L | 21:11 | 3 | +2.32 | +0.17 | +2.19 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 23:36 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.50 | +0.30 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 25:46 | +0.10 | +0.17 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 10:53 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:31 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.46 | −0.43 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 23:54 | 3 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 21:18 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.38 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| James Hamblin L | 6:44 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 14:50 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Raphael Lavoie C | 5:52 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 14:53 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 11:01 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 7:22 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 21:46 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:37 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.11 | −0.28 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 12:18 | −0.40 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 13:33 | −0.40 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 22:58 | 2 | −0.43 | +0.16 | −0.55 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 61:45 | +0.33 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.