NYR beat CBJ 4–3 in a shootout. NYR also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 3.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alexis Lafrenière scored on the power play at 19:49 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 4% to 51%. Jonathan Quick saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:26 |  CBJ | Justin Danforth from Erik Gudbranson, Zach Werenski | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 18:46 |  NYR | Chris Kreider from Erik Gustafsson, Blake Wheeler | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 11:17 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière from Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 12:35 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Dmitri Voronkov | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 12:54 | CBJ | Sean Kuraly from Alexandre Texier, Erik Gudbranson | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 19:49 | NYR | Alexis LafrenièrePP from Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin | 3–3 | 4% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fantilli C | 15:19 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.03 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 15:20 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.07 | +0.47 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:52 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.14 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.11 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 25:57 | +0.08 | +0.31 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 24:23 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 13:46 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 9:45 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 9:34 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 27:15 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 12:52 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 17:45 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 26:09 | 2 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 14:23 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 16:58 | −0.25 | +0.09 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 11:26 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 16:17 | −0.48 | −0.07 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 18:09 | 1 | −0.62 | +0.15 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Patrik Laine L | 17:50 | −0.65 | +0.05 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.35 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 65:00 | −0.43 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 25:02 | 2 | +2.71 | +0.08 | +1.57 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.06 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 20:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.35 | +0.59 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 26:18 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.43 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 26:28 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.22 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.15 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 13:15 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 13:20 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zac Jones D | 13:27 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 6:02 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 14:38 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 11:44 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 6:14 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 7:56 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 27:29 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 13:56 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 13:00 | −0.30 | +0.07 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 23:10 | −0.42 | +0.22 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.35 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 28:02 | 2 | −0.49 | +0.09 | −0.58 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.30 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:54 | −0.73 | −0.36 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 62:56 | +1.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.