MTL beat BOS 3–2 in overtime. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kaiden Guhle scored at 2:13 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:36 |  BOS | Pavel Zacha from Charlie McAvoy, Brad Marchand | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P3 0:24 | MTL | Nick SuzukiPP from Mike Matheson, Cole Caufield | 1–1 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 0:51 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Kaiden Guhle, Jake Evans | 1–2 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 12:58 | BOS | Brad MarchandPP from James van Riemsdyk, David Pastrnak | 2–2 | 15% → 49% |
| OT 2:13 | MTL | Kaiden Guhle unassisted | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Zacha C | 22:41 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.02 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Derek Forbort D | 18:12 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 11:58 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 26:44 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.02 | −0.37 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 19:36 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Lauko C | 8:20 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 14:56 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 12:55 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 20:52 | −0.11 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Mitchell D | 13:30 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Beecher C | 8:22 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 22:56 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 15:21 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Steen C | 8:37 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Poitras C | 12:30 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 17:09 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 22:03 | 1 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.37 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| David Pastrnak R | 22:06 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.07 | −0.59 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 62:13 | +0.14 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiden Guhle D | 21:12 | 1 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.34 | +0.55 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:11 | 1 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.85 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:48 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.12 | +0.38 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 11:29 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 20:29 | +0.09 | +0.21 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 17:05 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 19:16 | +0.02 | +0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 10:20 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 13:54 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 12:28 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 18:29 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 14:17 | −0.08 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 18:47 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.17 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 15:59 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 7:54 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 17:56 | −0.20 | +0.15 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 27:21 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 18:44 | −0.45 | +0.02 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 62:04 | +0.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.