PHI beat ANA 6–3. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 4.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sean Couturier scored at 4:57 of the first, moving PHI’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Lukas Dostal allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:57 | PHI | Sean Couturier from Cam Atkinson, Egor Zamula | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 12:31 | PHI | Cam Atkinson from Travis Sanheim, Tyson Foerster | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 2:33 | PHI | Louie Belpedio from Joel Farabee | 3–0 | 81% → 93% |
| P2 13:15 | ANA | Leo CarlssonPP from Alex Killorn, Mason McTavish | 3–1 | 4% → 14% |
| P3 7:39 | PHI | Travis Sanheim from Joel Farabee, Cam York | 4–1 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 10:34 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from Alex Killorn, Pavel Mintyukov | 4–2 | 1% → 4% |
| P3 13:07 | PHI | Owen Tippett from Morgan Frost | 5–2 | 97% → 100% |
| P3 18:32 | ANA | Leo CarlssonPP from Troy Terry, Ryan Strome | 5–3 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 18:59 | PHI | Owen TippettEN from Travis Sanheim, Scott Laughton | 6–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louie Belpedio D | 10:48 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.02 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 25:14 | 1 | 2 | +0.65 | −0.08 | +0.74 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Owen Tippett R | 13:52 | 2 | +0.54 | +0.01 | +0.53 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 16:48 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.05 | +0.58 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 18:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.12 | +0.35 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Joel Farabee L | 13:47 | 2 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 12:23 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 21:21 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 24:17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 13:21 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 9:56 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 17:07 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 13:34 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cam York D | 20:45 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Foerster R | 15:01 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.10 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 12:20 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.08 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 12:13 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 17:33 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.17 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 60:00 | +1.72 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson C | 20:44 | 3 | +2.32 | +0.18 | +2.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Troy Terry R | 22:04 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.18 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 20:16 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 9:16 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 15:00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 12:25 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 24:17 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 21:36 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.18 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 16:03 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 9:13 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 19:15 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 12:18 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 12:22 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 17:09 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 12:32 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 17:01 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.05 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 16:45 | −0.41 | −0.05 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 18:14 | 1 | −0.67 | +0.10 | −0.97 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 57:30 | −1.87 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.