WSH beat NJD 4–2. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nicolas Aube-Kubel scored at 10:22 of the first, moving WSH’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Akira Schmid saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:22 | WSH | Nicolas Aube-Kubel from Rasmus Sandin, Sonny Milano | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 10:37 | WSH | Beck Malenstyn from Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Martin Fehérváry | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P2 6:34 | WSH | Evgeny Kuznetsov from Tom Wilson, Alex Ovechkin | 3–0 | 83% → 94% |
| P3 7:13 | NJD | Timo Meier from Michael McLeod, John Marino | 3–1 | 1% → 6% |
| P3 9:12 | NJD | Dawson Mercer from Tyler Toffoli, Akira Schmid | 3–2 | 5% → 21% |
| P3 18:09 | WSH | Evgeny KuznetsovEN from Lucas Johansen, Tom Wilson | 4–2 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 12:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.06 | +0.46 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 13:54 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.03 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 25:29 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 10:40 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 15:15 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Hardy Haman Aktell D | 10:03 | +0.03 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 24:37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Phillips R | 10:23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 11:40 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 17:09 | 2 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 23:06 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.31 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.07 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 9:37 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 29:39 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 11:20 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Lucas Johansen D | 13:09 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 17:18 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 21:19 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.27 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 15:47 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 59:06 | +0.53 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McLeod C | 16:06 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 18:49 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.06 | +0.19 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tomas Nosek L | 10:34 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 15:53 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 18:36 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Erik Haula L | 15:03 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 13:26 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 19:34 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.23 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 22:35 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 7:05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 13:29 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 8:33 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 21:35 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 18:09 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 11:20 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 21:27 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 25:08 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 16:31 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 47:30 | +1.33 |
| Vitek Vanecek G | 10:37 | −1.57 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.