BUF beat MIN 3–2. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 4.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jeff Skinner scored at 19:02 of the second, moving BUF’s win probability from 52% to 77%. Devon Levi saved 2.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:02 | BUF | Henri Jokiharju from Owen Power | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:30 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 19:02 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from JJ Peterka | 1–2 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 3:33 | BUF | JJ Peterka from Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner | 1–3 | 79% → 93% |
| P3 12:27 | MIN | Joel Eriksson EkPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello | 2–3 | 3% → 15% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 20:56 | 1 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.45 | +0.50 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:55 | +0.33 | +0.47 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 19:47 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.42 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.15 | |
| Brock Faber D | 19:26 | +0.16 | +0.32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 15:29 | +0.15 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:52 | +0.10 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 23:31 | +0.09 | +0.18 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 16:08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Mermis D | 12:36 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 10:59 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 13:30 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 17:02 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.49 | −0.57 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 15:02 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 9:55 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 15:22 | −0.15 | +0.21 | −0.62 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.07 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 14:48 | −0.17 | +0.22 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinni Lettieri C | 11:11 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:16 | 2 | −0.35 | +0.33 | −0.75 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 58:15 | −0.57 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henri Jokiharju D | 17:46 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.03 | +0.90 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.02 | +0.40 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| JJ Peterka R | 15:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.08 | +0.61 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Matt Savoie C | 3:55 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 6:05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 14:40 | −0.14 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 14:22 | −0.14 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 10:29 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Owen Power D | 22:18 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lukas Rousek R | 13:14 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 15:47 | −0.20 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 22:18 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Johnson D | 18:00 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:43 | −0.34 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:29 | −0.35 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 21:16 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.29 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.08 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 14:05 | −0.54 | −0.13 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 22:31 | −0.60 | −0.33 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devon Levi G | 60:00 | +2.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.