SEA beat COL 4–3. SEA also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Oliver Bjorkstrand scored at 19:28 of the third, moving SEA’s win probability from 49% to 95%. Ivan Prosvetov allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:39 |  SEA | Jaden Schwartz from Tye Kartye, Vince Dunn | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 4:29 | SEA | Oliver Bjorkstrand from Jamie Oleksiak, Adam Larsson | 2–0 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 4:57 | COL | Bowen Byram from Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 11:35 | SEA | Matty BeniersPP from Vince Dunn, Jaden Schwartz | 3–1 | 70% → 85% |
| P2 15:40 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen | 3–2 | 13% → 30% |
| P3 12:15 | COL | Valeri Nichushkin from Devon Toews, Nathan MacKinnon | 3–3 | 17% → 51% |
| P3 19:28 | SEA | Oliver Bjorkstrand from Eeli Tolvanen, Adam Larsson | 4–3 | 49% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 14:39 | 2 | +1.95 | +0.24 | +1.52 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 21:08 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.03 | +0.70 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 18:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.01 | +0.69 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:50 | +0.24 | +0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 14:46 | +0.18 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 22:05 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Wright C | 8:34 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 22:10 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Winterton C | 7:01 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 17:15 | −0.02 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 17:40 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.23 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Justin Schultz D | 13:44 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 24:17 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Devin Shore C | 9:46 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 13:13 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 16:21 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:28 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 17:49 | −0.22 | +0.14 | −0.34 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 60:00 | −1.10 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:32 | 1 | 2 | +0.81 | +0.03 | +0.46 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 20:35 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.07 | +0.63 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 18:43 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.19 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 21:45 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 9:01 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 10:13 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 15:11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 11:46 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 24:25 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.23 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 27:53 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Tatar L | 10:59 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 12:17 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 9:26 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 14:56 | −0.25 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Riley Tufte L | 14:10 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 15:46 | −0.29 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 13:09 | −0.30 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 19:51 | −0.33 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Prosvetov G | 59:28 | −1.58 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.