COL beat NJD 6–3. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ryan Johansen scored at 7:37 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 81%. Vitek Vanecek allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:43 | NJD | Tyler Toffoli from John Marino, Michael McLeod | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:50 | COL | Mikko RantanenPP from Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 2:25 | COL | Ross Colton from Miles Wood, Logan O'Connor | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 11:04 | NJD | Timo MeierPP from Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton | 2–2 | 27% → 48% |
| P2 11:45 | COL | Miles WoodSH from Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar | 2–3 | 52% → 73% |
| P2 15:04 | NJD | Dougie HamiltonPP from Tyler Toffoli, Ondrej Palat | 3–3 | 26% → 48% |
| P3 7:37 | COL | Ryan Johansen unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 9:45 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar | 3–5 | 83% → 96% |
| P3 18:33 | COL | Mikko RantanenEN unassisted | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.12 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 22:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.03 | +0.63 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Timo Meier R | 18:29 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.11 | +0.48 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 16:07 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 18:40 | −0.00 | +0.11 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 15:09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:21 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tierney C | 7:55 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:22 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Max Willman C | 11:04 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 18:09 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 18:34 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 12:07 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 12:28 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| John Marino D | 21:59 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Holtz R | 10:12 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 20:13 | −0.40 | −0.04 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 17:30 | −0.49 | −0.28 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 58:28 | −1.16 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:22 | 1 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.13 | +0.57 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.37 | −0.10 |
| Miles Wood L | 11:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.12 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Ryan Johansen C | 17:11 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.11 | +0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 25:36 | 2 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.19 | +0.39 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Cale Makar D | 25:21 | 3 | +0.46 | +0.39 | −0.19 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 24:06 | +0.32 | +0.29 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 7:44 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.05 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 12:56 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 7:09 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 18:28 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 14:25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 9:20 | −0.06 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 18:24 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 14:38 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 11:11 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 20:00 | −0.15 | +0.10 | −0.43 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Ondrej Pavel C | 7:24 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 20:18 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 60:00 | −1.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.