NJD beat CHI 4–2. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Max Willman scored at 14:41 of the first, moving NJD’s win probability from 47% to 64%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:51 | CHI | Taylor Hall from Tyler Johnson, Wyatt Kaiser | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:07 | NJD | Dawson MercerPP from Erik Haula, Dougie Hamilton | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 14:41 | NJD | Max Willman unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P3 4:35 | NJD | Curtis Lazar from John Marino | 3–1 | 75% → 92% |
| P3 15:14 | CHI | Ryan Donato from Andreas Athanasiou, Jason Dickinson | 3–2 | 1% → 13% |
| P3 19:59 | NJD | Michael McLeodEN unassisted | 4–2 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Willman C | 12:21 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.13 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 17:38 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.14 | +0.65 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 14:56 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.10 | +0.49 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 21:18 | +0.37 | +0.39 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:56 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.38 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:41 | +0.10 | +0.17 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 10:50 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 20:18 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 10:52 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 12:12 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:38 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 13:44 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:51 | −0.12 | +0.17 | −0.31 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 16:19 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 17:10 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| John Marino D | 21:29 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 17:34 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.22 | −0.59 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 15:18 | −0.37 | +0.07 | −0.62 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 59:55 | +0.57 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Donato C | 9:38 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.07 | +0.55 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 18:53 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.18 | +0.57 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 15:34 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 17:34 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Dickinson C | 14:58 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Lukas Reichel L | 13:42 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 26:02 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 12:36 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Taylor Raddysh R | 15:01 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kevin Korchinski D | 19:19 | −0.20 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 20:07 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 14:45 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Alex Vlasic D | 17:47 | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 17:16 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 13:14 | −0.38 | −0.11 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 11:42 | −0.45 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 19:54 | −0.52 | −0.14 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 18:26 | −0.62 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arvid Soderblom G | 57:53 | +0.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.