BUF beat TOR 6–4. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 3.6, TOR 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alex Tuch scored at 12:48 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 49% to 83%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:05 |  TOR | Mitch Marner from Calle Jarnkrok, Morgan Rielly | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 16:13 |  BUF | JJ PeterkaPP from Owen Power, Victor Olofsson | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 6:28 | BUF | Tage ThompsonSH unassisted | 2–1 | 46% → 67% |
| P2 11:22 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from William Nylander, Mitch Marner | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 11:56 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Ryan Johnson | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 0:17 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Mitch Marner | 3–3 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 3:11 | BUF | Jordan Greenway from Casey Mittelstadt, JJ Peterka | 4–3 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 7:26 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Mark Giordano, Mitch Marner | 4–4 | 22% → 52% |
| P3 12:48 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Rasmus Dahlin, Connor Clifton | 5–4 | 49% → 83% |
| P3 18:54 | BUF | Alex TuchEN unassisted | 6–4 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Peterka R | 18:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.29 | +0.25 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 24:46 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.23 | −0.08 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 24:07 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:46 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.09 | +0.29 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 17:55 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.24 | +0.31 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 18:47 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.43 | −0.23 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Ryan Johnson D | 8:20 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 21:38 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.06 | +0.20 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 19:06 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 8:42 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 6:27 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 21:57 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.08 | +0.35 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.37 | −0.05 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 12:50 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 7:50 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 17:14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 17:14 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:05 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 16:23 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devon Levi G | 60:00 | −0.82 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 18:53 | 3 | +1.19 | +0.01 | +0.95 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.08 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 18:11 | 1 | 3 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.33 | +0.38 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Max Domi C | 13:58 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 22:49 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Maxime Lajoie D | 4:54 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 19:23 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 23:04 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 16:13 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.08 | +0.24 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 26:42 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Gregor L | 11:17 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 19:51 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 16:33 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:59 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 12:59 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Lagesson D | 12:29 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 9:12 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 15:02 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 25:04 | −0.31 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 59:23 | −0.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.