STL beat MTL 6–3. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 3.3, STL 3.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Robert Thomas scored at 16:37 of the first, moving STL’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Samuel Montembeault allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:24 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Brayden Schenn | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:01 |  MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Alex Newhook, Brendan Gallagher | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 16:37 | STL | Robert Thomas from Justin Faulk | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 13:03 | STL | Brandon Saad from Jordan Kyrou, Brayden Schenn | 1–3 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 14:48 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Sean Monahan | 2–3 | 10% → 25% |
| P3 2:50 | STL | Alexey ToropchenkoSH from Pavel Buchnevich | 2–4 | 77% → 93% |
| P3 5:53 | STL | Brayden Schenn from Jordan Kyrou, Brandon Saad | 2–5 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 16:00 | STL | Kasperi KapanenEN from Robert Thomas | 2–6 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 18:32 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Cole Caufield, Mike Matheson | 3–6 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Gallagher R | 14:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.01 | +0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Nick Suzuki C | 18:59 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.05 | +0.35 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:06 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.12 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 11:45 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 15:40 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 17:22 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 18:33 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 18:42 | +0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 21:23 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.19 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 16:44 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 12:35 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 13:38 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 20:04 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.35 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Armia R | 11:15 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 14:53 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 19:33 | −0.21 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 19:12 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 17:46 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 59:45 | −1.75 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Schenn C | 14:31 | 1 | 2 | +0.80 | +0.22 | +0.30 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 15:13 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.02 | +0.80 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 14:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.24 | +0.37 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:48 | 1 | 2 | +0.37 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.38 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Robert Thomas C | 14:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.09 | +0.42 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Torey Krug D | 18:30 | +0.20 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:22 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.13 | −0.14 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 16:58 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 15:23 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 18:14 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 11:47 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 13:02 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 23:11 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 24:48 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 13:55 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 13:27 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 15:45 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.11 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 10:34 | −0.39 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 60:00 | +0.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.