WPG beat ARI 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (WPG 2.7, ARI 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Brenden Dillon scored at 3:23 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 48% to 75%. Karel Vejmelka allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:31 |  ARI | J.J. Moser from Matias Maccelli, Lawson Crouse | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 5:49 | ARI | Liam O'Brien from Jack McBain | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 7:31 |  WPG | Nino Niederreiter from Mason Appleton, Josh Morrissey | 1–2 | 12% → 27% |
| P2 10:05 | WPG | Brenden Dillon from Vladislav Namestnikov, Cole Perfetti | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 14:47 | ARI | Lawson CrousePP from Nick Bjugstad | 2–3 | 54% → 75% |
| P2 17:01 | WPG | Nino NiederreiterPP from Nikolaj Ehlers, Neal Pionk | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 3:23 | WPG | Brenden Dillon from Mason Appleton, Adam Lowry | 4–3 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 7:16 | WPG | Nino Niederreiter from Adam Lowry, Brenden Dillon | 5–3 | 77% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:05 | 3 | +2.47 | +0.25 | +2.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 20:14 | 2 | 1 | +1.50 | +0.05 | +1.65 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 13:57 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 17:14 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 23:16 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.23 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Samberg D | 15:19 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 18:25 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.17 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 17:06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Kupari C | 7:25 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 19:05 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Gustafsson C | 8:04 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 10:17 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 21:09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 14:20 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 16:30 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 21:13 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:30 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.12 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 17:53 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | −0.13 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Brien C | 12:52 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.05 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 16:40 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.12 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.06 | +0.37 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Matias Maccelli L | 18:43 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 19:27 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 18:47 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 15:48 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 18:24 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 20:10 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 8:45 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 17:55 | −0.17 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 5:51 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:16 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:40 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 18:01 | −0.33 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 24:50 | −0.45 | −0.13 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 14:06 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.04 | −0.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 12:40 | −0.50 | −0.10 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 57:52 | −2.17 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.