NSH beat EDM 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (NSH 3.1, EDM 3.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Ryan O'Reilly scored at 0:23 of the second, moving NSH’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Jack Campbell allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:57 | EDM | Darnell NursePP from Mattias Ekholm, Ryan McLeod | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 10:22 |  NSH | Filip Forsberg from Ryan O'Reilly, Marc Del Gaizo | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 0:23 | NSH | Ryan O'Reilly from Filip Forsberg, Alexandre Carrier | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 3:24 | NSH | Ryan O'ReillyPP from Filip Forsberg, Tommy Novak | 3–1 | 67% → 81% |
| P2 5:08 | EDM | Zach HymanPP from Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid | 3–2 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 15:15 | NSH | Tommy Novak from Luke Evangelista, Roman Josi | 4–2 | 70% → 87% |
| P3 8:22 | NSH | Ryan O'Reilly from Gustav Nyquist, Alexandre Carrier | 5–2 | 94% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:39 | 3 | 1 | +2.57 | +0.05 | +2.39 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:04 | 1 | 2 | +0.66 | +0.05 | +0.58 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Tommy Novak C | 18:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.19 | +0.55 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 19:20 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Tomasino C | 11:07 | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 19:12 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 16:20 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 22:10 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam Foudy C | 9:50 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 12:51 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 17:37 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 18:02 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.19 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 19:47 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 15:45 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 19:25 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 10:13 | −0.35 | −0.05 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 12:04 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.06 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 15:57 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.15 | −0.73 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 60:00 | +1.08 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Nurse D | 20:53 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.03 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 19:00 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.00 | +0.42 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 20:01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:28 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 15:31 | +0.02 | +0.15 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Raphael Lavoie C | 9:25 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 23:28 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 18:39 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 6:31 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 10:40 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 17:44 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 22:44 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.17 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.11 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 21:02 | −0.16 | +0.27 | −0.56 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.08 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 17:09 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 13:35 | −0.39 | +0.07 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 14:45 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.12 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Evander Kane L | 19:49 | −0.46 | +0.11 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.37 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 60:00 | −1.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.