PHI beat BUF 5–1. Expected goals were close to even (PHI 2.6, BUF 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Scott Laughton scored at 1:03 of the first, moving PHI’s win probability from 47% to 62%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:03 | PHI | Scott Laughton from Bobby Brink, Joel Farabee | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 1:31 | PHI | Louie Belpedio unassisted | 2–0 | 62% → 74% |
| P1 14:57 | PHI | Travis Konecny unassisted | 3–0 | 78% → 91% |
| P2 14:35 | PHI | Garnet Hathaway from Ryan Poehling, Nicolas Deslauriers | 4–0 | 96% → 99% |
| P3 2:24 | BUF | Henri Jokiharju from Casey Mittelstadt, JJ Peterka | 4–1 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 11:28 | PHI | Bobby Brink from Joel Farabee | 5–1 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louie Belpedio D | 15:08 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.03 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:49 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 15:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.06 | +0.74 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Scott Laughton C | 16:49 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.03 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 17:26 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.01 | +0.56 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Foerster R | 16:42 | +0.17 | +0.04 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 18:12 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 17:43 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 10:40 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 13:44 | 2 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 15:24 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 19:39 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 17:39 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 16:52 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 10:14 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 16:45 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 22:29 | −0.26 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 24:04 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 60:00 | +1.09 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henri Jokiharju D | 21:03 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.03 | +0.88 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 15:15 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 25:03 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 17:06 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:39 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:17 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:15 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 2:30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Biro L | 15:21 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Owen Power D | 24:46 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:10 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 14:32 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 14:37 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Lukas Rousek R | 13:57 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 13:51 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 16:16 | −0.26 | +0.06 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 16:09 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 16:15 | −0.30 | +0.11 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 60:00 | −2.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.