BUF beat PHI 5–2. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 1.3 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Owen Power scored at 3:03 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 74%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:55 |  PHI | Joel Farabee from Travis Sanheim | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 3:38 | BUF | Casey Mittelstadt from JJ Peterka, Jeff Skinner | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 10:00 | BUF | Brandon Biro from Tage Thompson, Jordan Greenway | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:17 | PHI | Cam Atkinson from Travis Sanheim | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P3 3:03 | BUF | Owen Power from Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch | 3–2 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 13:28 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Alex Tuch | 4–2 | 84% → 98% |
| P3 16:52 | BUF | Brandon BiroEN from Casey Mittelstadt, Peyton Krebs | 5–2 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Biro L | 10:39 | 2 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Owen Power D | 23:45 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.16 | +0.83 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 17:59 | 1 | 2 | +0.60 | −0.15 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 15:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.32 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Erik Johnson D | 16:20 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 19:28 | +0.11 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:01 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:36 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 8:23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 15:23 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 11:16 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 17:50 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 14:33 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 26:07 | −0.25 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 13:06 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.05 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:49 | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 15:02 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.27 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 15:38 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 60:00 | +1.34 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Farabee L | 14:02 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.16 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 18:07 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.17 | +0.44 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 16:41 | +0.34 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 25:04 | +0.27 | +0.19 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 18:34 | +0.26 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 14:51 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 11:33 | +0.08 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 17:27 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 20:33 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 15:30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 19:13 | −0.06 | +0.25 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Louie Belpedio D | 12:42 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 24:35 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.24 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 10:19 | −0.19 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:15 | −0.20 | +0.11 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 15:29 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 16:18 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 15:31 | −0.48 | −0.03 | −0.46 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 49:16 | −1.26 |
| Carter Hart G | 10:00 | −1.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.