ANA beat PIT 4–3. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 6.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mason McTavish scored short-handed at 19:47 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 47% to 96%. Lukas Dostal saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:55 | PIT | Erik KarlssonPP from Evgeni Malkin, Reilly Smith | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 8:28 |  ANA | Jakob Silfverberg from Max Jones, Pavel Mintyukov | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 11:51 | ANA | Frank VatranoPP from Cam Fowler, Mason McTavish | 2–1 | 48% → 69% |
| P2 19:25 | PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from Erik Karlsson, Sidney Crosby | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 1:25 | PIT | Radim Zohorna from Drew O'Connor, Lars Eller | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 3:01 | ANA | Mason McTavish from Ryan Strome, Pavel Mintyukov | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 19:47 | ANA | Mason McTavishSH from Adam Henrique | 4–3 | 47% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish C | 15:54 | 2 | 1 | +1.15 | +0.02 | +1.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 12:28 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.11 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 16:36 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.31 | +0.72 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Jones L | 9:38 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 15:06 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 8:33 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 16:55 | 2 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 16:47 | −0.16 | −0.29 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 16:48 | −0.33 | −0.16 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 12:32 | −0.35 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 17:46 | −0.43 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 15:05 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.26 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 22:51 | −0.44 | −0.38 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 16:25 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 15:54 | −0.50 | −0.30 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 18:24 | −0.54 | −0.34 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 25:03 | 1 | −0.60 | −0.26 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 15:15 | −0.62 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 40:00 | +2.70 |
| John Gibson G | 20:00 | −0.20 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin C | 21:21 | 1 | 1 | +1.18 | +0.40 | +0.42 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.06 |
| Erik Karlsson D | 30:56 | 1 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.55 | +0.61 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Radim Zohorna L | 11:33 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.37 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kris Letang D | 21:51 | +0.50 | +0.49 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 17:56 | +0.37 | +0.41 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 14:39 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.43 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.08 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 24:56 | +0.24 | +0.40 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 16:23 | +0.14 | +0.51 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 12:31 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.29 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 15:41 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.38 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:01 | +0.07 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 10:07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 8:45 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 10:14 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 9:38 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 10:04 | −0.15 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 15:14 | −0.54 | +0.30 | −0.83 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 23:05 | 1 | −0.97 | +0.47 | −1.41 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 59:54 | −1.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.