EDM beat CGY 5–2. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 3.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brett Kulak scored at 4:19 of the first, moving EDM’s win probability from 53% to 69%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:19 |  EDM | Brett Kulak from Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:38 | EDM | Zach Hyman from Leon Draisaitl | 0–2 | 69% → 83% |
| P1 14:55 |  CGY | Nazem KadriPP from MacKenzie Weegar, Jonathan Huberdeau | 1–2 | 19% → 30% |
| P1 16:06 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid | 1–3 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 11:28 | CGY | A.J. GreerPP from MacKenzie Weegar, Jacob Markstrom | 2–3 | 12% → 26% |
| P3 6:16 | EDM | Vincent Desharnais from Evander Kane, Zach Hyman | 2–4 | 80% → 95% |
| P3 19:13 | EDM | Evander KaneEN from Derek Ryan | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Greer L | 8:13 | 1 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:09 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.00 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Walker Duehr R | 7:48 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 18:25 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Solovyov D | 16:36 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 9:23 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 15:40 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 26:11 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 20:59 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 12:42 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 18:10 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:01 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 19:50 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:34 | 2 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dryden Hunt L | 16:58 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.49 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 12:09 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 17:22 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.41 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 21:47 | −0.42 | −0.11 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 58:03 | +0.11 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Kulak D | 12:48 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.16 | +0.84 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 19:49 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.03 | +0.86 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 12:37 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.04 | +0.92 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 18:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.01 | +0.51 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Philip Broberg D | 7:19 | +0.13 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 24:55 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.20 | −0.30 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 10:20 | +0.08 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 22:09 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 9:58 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 3:34 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:22 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:49 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 23:26 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.06 | −0.35 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 8:50 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 13:49 | −0.40 | +0.10 | −0.49 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 22:15 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.06 | −0.47 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Connor Brown R | 15:19 | −0.55 | −0.00 | −0.53 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 20:32 | 1 | 2 | −1.14 | +0.03 | −0.78 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.37 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 59:45 | +0.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.