WSH beat SJS 3–1. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tom Wilson scored at 15:15 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 51% to 89%. Mackenzie Blackwood saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:40 | SJS | Luke Kunin from Ty Emberson, Mario Ferraro | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P3 2:18 | WSH | Dylan Strome from Nick Jensen, Hardy Haman Aktell | 1–1 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 15:15 | WSH | Tom Wilson from Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson | 1–2 | 51% → 89% |
| P3 19:02 | WSH | Evgeny KuznetsovEN from Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson | 1–3 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Emberson D | 21:15 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 12:18 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 17:42 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.18 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| William Eklund L | 16:57 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 16:45 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 17:47 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 13:01 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 10:05 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 17:14 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 7:43 | −0.17 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 19:04 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 18:46 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 13:06 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 21:02 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.15 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:06 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 15:07 | −0.32 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 20:58 | −0.32 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 15:34 | −0.41 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 59:30 | +1.85 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Strome C | 21:00 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.38 | +0.45 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.15 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 15:39 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 17:16 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.18 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hardy Haman Aktell D | 12:43 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 22:20 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.30 | −0.34 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 26:45 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.24 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 16:48 | +0.04 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Phillips R | 12:26 | −0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 12:24 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 7:19 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 14:34 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 15:21 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 7:28 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 23:04 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 7:30 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 18:09 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 24:17 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 25:05 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 59:52 | +1.51 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.