NYR beat VAN 4–3 in overtime. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: K'Andre Miller scored at 3:48 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Casey DeSmith allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:18 |  NYR | Artemi PanarinPP from Vincent Trocheck, Mika Zibanejad | 1–0 | 52% → 64% |
| P2 15:57 |  VAN | J.T. MillerPP from Filip Hronek, Elias Pettersson | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 9:06 | VAN | Tyler MyersSH unassisted | 1–2 | 51% → 81% |
| P3 12:21 | NYR | Adam FoxPP from Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad | 2–2 | 22% → 50% |
| P3 13:24 | NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Adam Fox | 3–2 | 50% → 84% |
| P3 15:42 | VAN | Carson Soucy from Filip Hronek, Anthony Beauvillier | 3–3 | 13% → 51% |
| OT 3:48 | NYR | K'Andre Miller from Chris Kreider | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fox D | 24:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.23 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 23:16 | 1 | 2 | +0.83 | +0.25 | +0.62 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.21 | +0.52 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| K'Andre Miller D | 20:11 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.29 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Wheeler R | 7:30 | +0.13 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 21:25 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.24 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 19:52 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 13:22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 10:17 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 20:50 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 12:16 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 9:43 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:56 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 18:12 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 16:15 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 21:11 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 14:31 | −0.34 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 7:53 | −0.41 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 63:22 | +0.79 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Soucy D | 18:04 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.01 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 27:03 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.47 | −0.09 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 18:23 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.15 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 25:01 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.34 | +0.72 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 9:14 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 12:24 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 17:24 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 15:03 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Friedman D | 8:13 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 12:31 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 11:41 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 12:43 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 10:21 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 24:49 | 2 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 25:50 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 12:05 | −0.43 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 19:54 | −0.87 | +0.42 | −1.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 19:52 | −0.99 | −0.16 | −0.82 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 63:48 | −1.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.