WSH beat MIN 3–2 in a shootout. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 5.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Hartman scored at 1:16 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 22% to 48%. Darcy Kuemper saved 6.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:17 | MIN | Marco Rossi from Marcus Foligno, Marcus Johansson | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 9:49 | WSH | Tom WilsonSH from Connor McMichael, Trevor van Riemsdyk | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 17:14 | WSH | Dylan StromePP from Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P3 1:16 | MIN | Ryan Hartman unassisted | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calen Addison D | 12:48 | +0.29 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 18:46 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.25 | +0.42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 17:40 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.15 | +0.50 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.44 | |
| Brock Faber D | 26:38 | +0.19 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 25:32 | +0.11 | +0.18 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dakota Mermis D | 18:40 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Daemon Hunt D | 4:12 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 10:46 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 17:01 | −0.06 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 18:22 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.53 | −0.59 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 12:06 | −0.07 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.37 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 9:54 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:35 | −0.26 | +0.28 | −0.26 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.30 | ||
| Vinni Lettieri C | 11:38 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 24:56 | −0.75 | +0.34 | −0.96 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.35 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 21:39 | 1 | −0.79 | +0.49 | −0.82 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.44 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 22:34 | −0.87 | +0.08 | −0.56 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.44 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 17:58 | −1.29 | +0.25 | −0.70 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 64:13 | +2.65 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Wilson R | 19:56 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.17 | +0.58 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 27:11 | +0.39 | −0.43 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +1.06 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 21:55 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.02 | +0.67 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.44 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 22:00 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Matthew Phillips R | 3:18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 5:21 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 10:20 | −0.06 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 7:40 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 20:50 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 13:54 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 18:10 | −0.33 | −0.35 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 25:16 | −0.34 | −0.30 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 15:30 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 22:23 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 11:55 | −0.58 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 13:33 | −0.81 | +0.02 | −0.40 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 20:26 | −1.12 | −0.03 | −0.77 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.35 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 25:22 | 1 | −1.28 | −0.20 | −0.46 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 65:00 | +6.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.