NJD beat BUF 5–4. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 2.9, NJD 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Erik Haula scored at 14:17 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 51% to 87%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:11 |  BUF | JJ Peterka from Henri Jokiharju, Owen Power | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 7:41 | NJD | Alexander Holtz from Luke Hughes, Michael McLeod | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 15:42 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Alex Tuch, Jordan Greenway | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 16:11 | NJD | Jesper Bratt unassisted | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 13:47 | NJD | Erik HaulaSH unassisted | 2–3 | 52% → 74% |
| P2 17:32 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Mattias Samuelsson, Jeff Skinner | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 2:09 | NJD | Jack HughesPP from Luke Hughes, Timo Meier | 3–4 | 53% → 78% |
| P3 12:35 | BUF | Dylan Cozens from Kyle Okposo | 4–4 | 15% → 49% |
| P3 14:17 | NJD | Erik Haula from Kevin Bahl, John Marino | 4–5 | 51% → 87% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Peterka R | 13:45 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.02 | +0.42 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 26:39 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.03 | +0.45 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:07 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.08 | +0.47 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 20:15 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 23:56 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.26 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 16:04 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 11:57 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 10:36 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 18:06 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.30 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:49 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 9:49 | −0.05 | +0.19 | −0.14 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 11:53 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 22:19 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.17 | +0.29 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 4:35 | −0.14 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 16:32 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:09 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 11:11 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 24:18 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.13 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Comrie G | 29:46 | −0.10 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 28:08 | −1.40 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Haula L | 16:03 | 2 | +1.15 | +0.07 | +1.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 22:05 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.05 | +0.38 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 21:01 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.09 | +0.32 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 22:33 | 2 | +0.30 | +0.08 | −0.18 | +0.42 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 13:40 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Alexander Holtz R | 10:40 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.03 | +0.33 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| John Marino D | 20:41 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 18:52 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 17:04 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 11:11 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 18:19 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 12:07 | −0.09 | +0.23 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 12:50 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 20:15 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 14:05 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:22 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.26 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 9:01 | −0.31 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 17:11 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 60:00 | −0.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.