MTL beat CBJ 4–3 in overtime. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 4.9 to 3.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Cole Caufield scored at 4:17 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:46 | CBJ | Jack Roslovic from Johnny Gaudreau, Zach Werenski | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 17:21 | CBJ | Emil BemstromPP from Ivan Provorov, Jack Roslovic | 2–0 | 66% → 79% |
| P2 0:27 | MTL | Nick Suzuki unassisted | 2–1 | 20% → 34% |
| P2 13:34 | CBJ | Emil BemstromPP from Jack Roslovic, Dmitri Voronkov | 3–1 | 70% → 86% |
| P2 19:43 | MTL | Mike MathesonPP from Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield | 3–2 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 7:48 | MTL | Sean MonahanPP from Cole Caufield, Mike Matheson | 3–3 | 23% → 52% |
| OT 4:17 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Nick Suzuki, Jordan Harris | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Bemstrom C | 13:50 | 2 | +1.85 | +0.31 | +1.55 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 20:54 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.30 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 26:19 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.24 | −0.35 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 20:23 | 1 | 2 | −0.09 | −0.70 | +0.44 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 21:30 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:36 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 18:35 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 8:21 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 12:37 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 8:20 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 15:21 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 13:13 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 22:19 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| David Jiricek D | 11:14 | −0.34 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 15:55 | −0.41 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 22:07 | −0.50 | +0.30 | −1.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.09 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 17:54 | −0.85 | −0.89 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 23:11 | 1 | −1.05 | −0.95 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 64:17 | +0.43 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Harris D | 22:49 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.97 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 28:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.08 | +0.71 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:31 | 1 | 2 | +0.79 | +0.89 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Cole Caufield R | 20:21 | 1 | 2 | +0.55 | +0.92 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Alex Newhook C | 15:07 | +0.33 | +0.17 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 17:44 | +0.30 | +0.26 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 21:09 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 11:55 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 13:24 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 7:38 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesse Ylonen R | 12:26 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 12:37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 20:24 | −0.04 | +0.32 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 13:26 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 13:48 | −0.17 | +0.08 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 16:08 | −0.26 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 22:52 | −0.36 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 15:32 | −0.43 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 64:17 | +0.57 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.