ANA beat CBJ 3–2 in overtime. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Frank Vatrano scored at 2:20 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Lukas Dostal saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:49 |  CBJ | Emil BemstromPP from Ivan Provorov, Adam Fantilli | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 15:49 |  ANA | Ryan Strome from Pavel Mintyukov, Mason McTavish | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 9:13 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Jack Roslovic, Jake Bean | 1–2 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 16:13 | ANA | Brett Leason from Ross Johnston | 2–2 | 10% → 49% |
| OT 2:20 | ANA | Frank Vatrano from Bo Groulx | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Leason R | 10:50 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.25 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 18:21 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.22 | +0.72 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 26:10 | +0.15 | +0.11 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Groulx C | 12:17 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 21:01 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 12:52 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 12:26 | +0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 17:46 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 20:00 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.41 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 18:49 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 15:06 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 19:29 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Max Jones L | 15:07 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 6:06 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.13 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 13:09 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 19:30 | −0.33 | +0.11 | −0.45 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 16:04 | −0.39 | −0.12 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 18:29 | −0.54 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 62:20 | +1.39 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fantilli C | 19:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.33 | +0.63 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Emil Bemstrom C | 12:02 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.06 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 18:36 | +0.34 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 23:20 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 15:03 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 19:31 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 8:12 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 6:39 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 10:58 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 18:11 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Jiricek D | 8:03 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 24:13 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.35 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 15:04 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 14:22 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 25:20 | −0.32 | +0.07 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 20:03 | −0.41 | −0.09 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 14:18 | −0.44 | +0.09 | −0.49 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 26:26 | −0.81 | −0.25 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 61:44 | −0.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.