BOS beat ANA 3–1. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matthew Poitras scored at 10:20 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 48% to 80%. Linus Ullmark saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 5:05 |  ANA | Mason McTavish from Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano | 0–1 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 6:29 | BOS | Matthew Poitras from Morgan Geekie, Ian Mitchell | 1–1 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 10:20 | BOS | Matthew Poitras from Jake DeBrusk, Charlie McAvoy | 2–1 | 48% → 80% |
| P3 17:26 | BOS | Brad MarchandEN from Charlie Coyle | 3–1 | 90% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Poitras C | 16:07 | 2 | +1.53 | +0.21 | +1.35 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 17:19 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.18 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Lauko C | 9:53 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 21:16 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Brown C | 8:17 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| John Beecher C | 7:53 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 24:57 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 10:49 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 15:28 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Brad Marchand L | 19:39 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 27:38 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 18:35 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 12:57 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 16:08 | −0.38 | −0.28 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 18:46 | −0.39 | −0.16 | −0.27 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 20:32 | −0.39 | −0.22 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Mitchell D | 9:59 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 15:47 | −0.81 | −0.01 | −0.77 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:00 | +2.06 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish C | 18:21 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.24 | +0.36 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 20:24 | +0.23 | +0.37 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 17:27 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.31 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 14:11 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 14:45 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Bo Groulx C | 11:35 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 19:09 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 24:51 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 18:54 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 6:21 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 17:54 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 10:48 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 11:52 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 18:24 | −0.19 | +0.22 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 19:04 | −0.24 | +0.21 | −0.46 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 10:03 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 17:25 | −0.36 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 18:56 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.09 | −0.60 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 58:35 | +0.79 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.