VGK beat CHI 5–3. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nicolas Roy scored at 0:13 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 48% to 73%. Arvid Soderblom allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:30 | CHI | Connor BedardPP from Taylor Hall | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 4:05 |  VGK | William KarlssonPP from Paul Cotter, Kaedan Korczak | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P2 7:30 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 8:50 | CHI | Reese Johnson from Connor Murphy, Ryan Donato | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 0:13 | VGK | Nicolas Roy from Keegan Kolesar, Brayden McNabb | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 13:47 | VGK | Mark Stone from Michael Amadio, Chandler Stephenson | 4–2 | 85% → 98% |
| P3 16:09 | VGK | Paul CotterPP from Michael Amadio, Alec Martinez | 5–2 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 19:45 | CHI | Corey Perry from Nick Foligno, Kevin Korchinski | 5–3 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Stone R | 19:41 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.08 | +0.74 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 14:13 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.03 | +0.57 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 14:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.04 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:14 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 16:02 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.12 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 15:54 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 16:12 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.00 | +0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 10:24 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:07 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| William Carrier L | 11:06 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 13:34 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 21:32 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.14 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 18:06 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Pachal D | 17:27 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 15:10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 10:58 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 18:02 | −0.10 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 19:24 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.51 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.11 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 59:27 | −0.67 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Perry R | 14:09 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.05 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reese Johnson C | 12:09 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Connor Bedard C | 17:26 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.01 | +0.63 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jones D | 26:49 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 15:52 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 13:12 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jarred Tinordi D | 14:17 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 17:45 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 12:39 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Johnson C | 16:13 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 18:20 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Korchinski D | 19:58 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 16:37 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 13:56 | −0.41 | −0.06 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 14:50 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.11 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jason Dickinson C | 14:33 | −0.42 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.09 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 16:14 | −0.45 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 15:33 | −0.86 | −0.15 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arvid Soderblom G | 60:00 | −2.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.