MTL beat WSH 3–2 in overtime. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cole Caufield scored at 0:47 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jake Allen saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:55 |  MTL | Sean MonahanPP from Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 9:50 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Sean Monahan, Tanner Pearson | 0–2 | 74% → 88% |
| P3 11:25 | WSH | Dylan Strome from Alex Ovechkin, Matthew Phillips | 1–2 | 3% → 16% |
| P3 17:59 | WSH | Dylan StromePP from Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson | 2–2 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 0:47 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Strome C | 16:09 | 2 | +1.21 | +0.05 | +1.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| John Carlson D | 29:22 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.29 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 13:56 | +0.15 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 19:18 | +0.15 | +0.38 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matthew Phillips R | 12:25 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 17:00 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 10:02 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 11:54 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 17:32 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 21:27 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 21:42 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.36 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Hardy Haman Aktell D | 8:00 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 22:49 | −0.25 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 12:13 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 11:39 | −0.30 | −0.11 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 10:35 | −0.46 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 19:58 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.22 | −0.56 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 16:37 | −0.55 | +0.13 | −0.70 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 60:31 | +0.36 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Monahan C | 18:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.05 | +0.73 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Cole Caufield R | 21:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.03 | +0.32 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 13:50 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 9:27 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.39 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Pearson L | 12:09 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.01 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 15:44 | +0.07 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 11:31 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 7:30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:00 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 19:32 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Ylonen R | 11:51 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 19:42 | −0.18 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 19:16 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 14:09 | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 15:54 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 15:10 | −0.39 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 26:23 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.16 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 18:27 | −0.78 | +0.09 | −0.84 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:47 | +2.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.