NJD beat NYI 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NJD 3.0, NYI 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jack Hughes scored at 2:19 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ilya Sorokin allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:35 | NYI | Brock Nelson from Pierre Engvall, Kyle Palmieri | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 19:00 | NJD | Dougie HamiltonPP from Timo Meier, Akira Schmid | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 0:21 | NJD | Tyler ToffoliPP from Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt | 2–1 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 1:37 | NYI | Brock Nelson from Kyle Palmieri | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 2:36 | NJD | Luke HughesPP from Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt | 3–2 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 6:10 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Noah Dobson, Matt Martin | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 4:30 | NJD | Jack HughesPP from Ondrej Palat, Jesper Bratt | 4–3 | 49% → 75% |
| P3 18:49 | NYI | Bo HorvatPP from Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal | 4–4 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 2:19 | NJD | Jack Hughes from John Marino, Timo Meier | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Hughes D | 17:41 | 1 | +1.21 | +0.15 | +0.89 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 24:21 | 2 | 2 | +0.89 | +0.04 | +0.89 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:00 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.08 | +0.58 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:53 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.24 | +0.68 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 21:08 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 14:32 | +0.15 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 12:15 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 7:35 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 21:28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 15:53 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 13:20 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 10:05 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 20:42 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Bastian R | 11:47 | −0.31 | +0.20 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 19:37 | −0.44 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:32 | 3 | −0.49 | −0.38 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 16:16 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.42 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 15:52 | −0.73 | −0.41 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 62:19 | −0.46 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat C | 20:47 | 2 | +1.65 | +0.31 | +1.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 19:29 | 2 | +1.64 | +0.20 | +1.42 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 26:02 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.35 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 13:21 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 14:18 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Bolduc D | 9:30 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 22:06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 14:55 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.17 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:36 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.16 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 11:57 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 10:27 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 9:16 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 26:57 | −0.23 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:30 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 19:59 | −0.39 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 16:38 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:38 | −0.62 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.37 | −0.04 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 18:54 | 1 | −0.88 | +0.31 | −1.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 61:47 | −1.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.