VGK beat DAL 3–2 in a shootout. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: William Karlsson scored at 17:01 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 9% to 51%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:52 | DAL | Craig Smith from Tyler Seguin, Thomas Harley | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 13:03 | VGK | Kaedan Korczak from Brett Howden, William Karlsson | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 2:50 | DAL | Joe Pavelski from Roope Hintz | 2–1 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 17:01 | VGK | William Karlsson from Kaedan Korczak, Mark Stone | 2–2 | 9% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Duchene C | 18:12 | +0.70 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.84 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 10:10 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.13 | +0.29 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 14:34 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.13 | +0.46 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 20:23 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jani Hakanpää D | 21:16 | +0.10 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 17:10 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.25 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 24:44 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 17:41 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 14:07 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 13:58 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 16:34 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 13:38 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 11:32 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 20:58 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 18:10 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 19:44 | −0.32 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 18:06 | −0.49 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 16:03 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.15 | −0.11 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 65:00 | −0.62 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Karlsson C | 15:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.28 | +0.21 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 19:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.10 | +0.45 | +0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:58 | +0.64 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +1.06 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 27:10 | +0.50 | +0.13 | −0.34 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.84 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 23:23 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.25 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 12:40 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 9:06 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 22:36 | +0.03 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 21:04 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 11:40 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 14:53 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 15:03 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 15:37 | −0.05 | +0.22 | −0.21 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 12:47 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:45 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 23:59 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 13:03 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 21:54 | −0.74 | −0.04 | −0.42 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.09 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 64:14 | +0.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.