WSH beat CGY 3–2 in a shootout. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Connor McMichael scored at 9:54 of the second, moving WSH’s win probability from 32% to 53%. Darcy Kuemper saved 3.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:47 |  CGY | Adam Ruzicka from Noah Hanifin, Dillon Dube | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 17:12 | CGY | Dillon DubePP from Noah Hanifin, Adam Ruzicka | 2–0 | 66% → 79% |
| P2 6:50 | WSH | Matthew Phillips from Sonny Milano | 2–1 | 17% → 33% |
| P2 9:54 | WSH | Connor McMichael from Matthew Phillips, John Carlson | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Ruzicka C | 15:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.09 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 |
| Dillon Dube C | 14:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.27 | +0.68 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dennis Gilbert D | 10:53 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 17:39 | +0.14 | +0.21 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:50 | +0.11 | +0.19 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Walker Duehr R | 8:56 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 10:13 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 17:59 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 20:17 | −0.05 | +0.12 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 25:27 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:29 | 2 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:49 | −0.39 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.44 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 23:00 | −0.49 | +0.03 | −0.60 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 10:53 | −0.51 | +0.06 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.35 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 24:07 | −0.55 | −0.19 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 16:08 | −0.56 | +0.21 | −0.77 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 17:12 | −0.59 | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 17:43 | −0.83 | −0.02 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 81:25 | +0.48 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McMichael L | 14:51 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.02 | +0.84 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Phillips R | 12:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.24 | +0.50 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| John Carlson D | 29:26 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.28 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 13:58 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 14:16 | +0.09 | +0.27 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 23:45 | +0.08 | +0.16 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 19:32 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.37 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.37 | −0.04 | +0.71 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 21:53 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:04 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.13 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 17:38 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 18:33 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | −0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 15:06 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 16:15 | −0.20 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 18:04 | −0.22 | +0.12 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:40 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 12:04 | −0.25 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 18:07 | −0.70 | −0.10 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.17 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 8:46 | −0.89 | −0.12 | −0.56 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 65:00 | +3.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.