COL beat SJS 2–1 in a shootout. COL also won the expected-goals battle 5.5 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Cale Makar scored on the power play at 18:34 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 6% to 50%. Mackenzie Blackwood saved 3.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:42 | SJS | Thomas Bordeleau from Matt Benning, Mike Hoffman | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 18:34 | COL | Cale MakarPP from Valeri Nichushkin | 1–1 | 6% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen R | 24:25 | +1.22 | +0.48 | −0.42 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | +0.84 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 27:46 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.38 | +0.47 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 18:26 | +0.58 | +0.70 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 18:57 | +0.26 | +0.31 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 12:02 | +0.19 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 16:37 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.53 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 11:07 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 16:12 | +0.12 | +0.24 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 14:11 | +0.10 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 20:35 | +0.08 | +0.27 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 11:09 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 22:28 | −0.05 | +0.29 | −0.20 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 11:57 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 9:44 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 15:41 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 15:23 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 18:32 | −0.38 | +0.60 | −0.96 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 25:38 | −1.01 | +0.46 | −1.39 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.07 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 64:12 | +2.26 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Bordeleau C | 12:36 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.39 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolai Knyzhov D | 19:40 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 3:15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jacob Peterson C | 14:35 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 20:01 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 16:30 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.30 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 17:31 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 13:09 | −0.34 | −0.24 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 15:29 | −0.34 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 10:51 | −0.39 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 14:41 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.31 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 21:01 | −0.40 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 14:14 | −0.62 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.35 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 22:21 | 1 | −0.72 | −0.54 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 26:45 | −0.72 | −0.74 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 23:40 | −0.81 | −0.52 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 25:10 | −0.86 | −0.68 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 18:36 | −0.97 | −0.39 | −0.37 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 65:00 | +3.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.