VAN beat EDM 4–3. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 5.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sam Lafferty scored at 2:56 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 74%. Stuart Skinner allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:42 |  EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:25 |  VAN | Andrei KuzmenkoPP from Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 17:51 | VAN | Nils Hoglander from Brock Boeser, Tyler Myers | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 1:45 | EDM | Connor McDavidPP from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 2:36 | VAN | Jack Studnicka from Elias Pettersson | 3–2 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 9:29 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPP from Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 2:56 | VAN | Sam Lafferty from Nils Hoglander | 4–3 | 48% → 74% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 12:04 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.16 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 8:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.04 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sam Lafferty C | 14:40 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jack Studnicka C | 7:19 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.07 | +0.67 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:42 | 2 | +0.28 | +0.19 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 19:38 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Akito Hirose D | 9:52 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 16:17 | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 16:19 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 25:32 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Juulsen D | 12:36 | −0.25 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 12:53 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 22:44 | −0.35 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 14:58 | −0.43 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 24:46 | −0.47 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 15:49 | −0.54 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 9:42 | −0.55 | +0.03 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 25:57 | −0.76 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 60:00 | +1.91 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 23:26 | 1 | 2 | +0.89 | +0.43 | +0.40 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 25:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.47 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Connor McDavid C | 26:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.34 | −0.14 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Cody Ceci D | 19:55 | +0.25 | +0.28 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 15:26 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:57 | +0.12 | +0.23 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 13:25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 13:23 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 23:41 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.51 | −0.54 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 13:38 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 7:51 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 6:13 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 5:21 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 10:04 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 20:35 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 15:47 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 24:52 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.26 | −0.46 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 10:26 | −0.44 | −0.08 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 57:38 | −2.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.