NYI beat BUF 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 1.9, NYI 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Casey Cizikas scored at 13:40 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 51% to 88%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:57 | NYI | Brock Nelson from Pierre Engvall | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 18:18 | NYI | Kyle Palmieri from Brock Nelson, Ryan Pulock | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 4:15 |  BUF | Jordan Greenway from Casey Mittelstadt, Zach Benson | 1–2 | 13% → 28% |
| P3 2:34 | BUF | Casey Mittelstadt from Zach Benson, Rasmus Dahlin | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 13:40 | NYI | Casey Cizikas from Adam Pelech, Cal Clutterbuck | 2–3 | 51% → 88% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 19:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 |
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:53 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.13 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Benson L | 15:16 | 2 | +0.26 | +0.11 | −0.10 | +0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 10:07 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 18:04 | +0.05 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 23:12 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 26:24 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 16:14 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 13:36 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 11:31 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 14:33 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 10:09 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:59 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.21 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 16:00 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 16:46 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 12:07 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 16:00 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.11 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 15:13 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devon Levi G | 59:32 | −0.56 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Cizikas C | 12:45 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.40 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 16:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.00 | +0.22 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:32 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.04 | +0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 16:47 | +0.23 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 14:17 | +0.20 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 14:26 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 21:53 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.25 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 13:12 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 19:13 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:52 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Martin L | 10:08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:30 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:07 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 11:00 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 20:07 | −0.10 | +0.15 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 22:04 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 14:17 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 20:58 | −0.45 | +0.14 | −0.35 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 59:51 | +0.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.