CBJ beat NYR 5–3. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 4.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Boone Jenner scored on the power play at 17:45 of the first, moving CBJ’s win probability from 54% to 71%. Igor Shesterkin allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:50 |  NYR | Erik Gustafsson from Adam Fox, Jimmy Vesey | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 9:36 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Johnny Gaudreau, Kirill Marchenko | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 17:45 | CBJ | Boone JennerPP from Johnny Gaudreau, Ivan Provorov | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 12:30 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Jake Bean | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 13:37 | CBJ | David Jiricek from Patrik Laine, Ivan Provorov | 1–4 | 90% → 97% |
| P3 10:53 | NYR | Will Cuylle from Vincent Trocheck, Erik Gustafsson | 2–4 | 0% → 3% |
| P3 15:54 | CBJ | Justin Danforth from Cole Sillinger, Kent Johnson | 2–5 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 19:24 | NYR | Chris KreiderPP from Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox | 3–5 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Gustafsson D | 21:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.09 | +0.58 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Chris Kreider L | 18:26 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.09 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 14:54 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.02 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 21:13 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.08 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.08 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 9:28 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 9:56 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 20:25 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 14:39 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:48 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Zac Jones D | 12:30 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 24:55 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.18 | −0.18 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 16:58 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 15:48 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 12:11 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 7:34 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 23:32 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.56 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:44 | −0.26 | +0.09 | −0.42 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 20:32 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 56:40 | −2.87 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boone Jenner C | 17:48 | 3 | +2.19 | +0.11 | +2.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| David Jiricek D | 16:39 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.07 | +0.88 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 15:12 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.08 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam Foudy C | 7:56 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 16:51 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:13 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 22:52 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 12:27 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Boqvist D | 15:43 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 15:44 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jake Bean D | 19:56 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:50 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 21:24 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 8:27 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 19:37 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 22:00 | −0.28 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 16:02 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 14:35 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 39:54 | +1.40 |
| Spencer Martin G | 20:00 | −0.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.