VAN beat ARI 5–4 in overtime. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Conor Garland scored at 1:19 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Karel Vejmelka allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:53 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Quinn Hughes, Kyle Burroughs | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 5:08 |  ARI | Liam O'Brien from Michael Kesselring, Jack McBain | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 8:03 | VAN | Conor GarlandPP from Anthony Beauvillier, Andrei Kuzmenko | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 12:21 | VAN | J.T. MillerPP from Quinn Hughes, Phillip Di Giuseppe | 3–1 | 65% → 78% |
| P1 14:16 | VAN | Conor Garland from Kyle Burroughs, Andrei Kuzmenko | 4–1 | 78% → 91% |
| P1 19:53 | ARI | Travis Boyd from Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz | 4–2 | 7% → 20% |
| P2 9:54 | ARI | Liam O'Brien from Michael Kesselring | 4–3 | 16% → 32% |
| P3 16:40 | ARI | Nick Schmaltz from Victor Soderstrom, Matias Maccelli | 4–4 | 10% → 51% |
| OT 1:19 | VAN | Conor Garland from J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Garland R | 14:47 | 3 | +2.21 | +0.14 | +2.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:25 | 1 | +0.94 | −0.11 | +0.80 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 19:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.02 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Nils Aman C | 12:21 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Cole McWard D | 14:32 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 20:02 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 16:39 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 14:32 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 17:43 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dakota Joshua C | 10:56 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sheldon Dries C | 15:04 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 25:54 | 3 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Akito Hirose D | 19:02 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aidan McDonough L | 12:45 | −0.27 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 15:30 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jack Studnicka C | 13:09 | −0.30 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 19:13 | −0.48 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 15:15 | −0.60 | +0.07 | −0.65 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Collin Delia G | 61:19 | −1.36 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Brien C | 11:32 | 2 | +1.54 | −0.03 | +1.57 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Boyd C | 20:16 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.12 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 22:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.25 | +0.24 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Michael Kesselring D | 13:20 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jan Jenik C | 7:50 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 16:05 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:31 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 24:55 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Soderstrom D | 17:40 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Mackey D | 16:38 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 9:40 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 28:04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 15:01 | −0.09 | +0.15 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milos Kelemen L | 7:35 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 17:41 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.60 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.38 | +0.03 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 12:43 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 22:39 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.22 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Joshua Brown D | 16:06 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 61:03 | −2.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.