BUF beat OTT 4–3 in overtime. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Casey Mittelstadt scored at 1:18 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:43 | BUF | Henri Jokiharju from Casey Mittelstadt, Jeff Skinner | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 2:46 | BUF | Victor Olofsson from Kyle Okposo, Zemgus Girgensons | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 4:27 |  OTT | Tim StützlePP from Jake Sanderson, Drake Batherson | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 6:11 | OTT | Dylan Gambrell from Egor Sokolov | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 12:36 | OTT | Claude Giroux from Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle | 3–2 | 46% → 69% |
| P3 3:03 | BUF | Tage ThompsonPP from Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch | 3–3 | 26% → 52% |
| OT 1:18 | BUF | Casey Mittelstadt from Rasmus Dahlin, Jeff Skinner | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle C | 22:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.17 | +0.78 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.02 |
| Claude Giroux R | 20:07 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.04 | +0.78 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Dylan Gambrell C | 9:23 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.02 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Julien Gauthier R | 6:47 | +0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxence Guenette D | 8:47 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Sokolov L | 6:44 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 15:46 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 16:09 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 15:18 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 20:50 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 23:13 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 12:11 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:11 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Brown C | 16:09 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 23:43 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 11:05 | −0.44 | −0.03 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 29:52 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.22 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 19:16 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.17 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mads Sogaard G | 61:18 | −0.52 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henri Jokiharju D | 23:38 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.05 | +0.85 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 18:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.15 | +0.58 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.06 |
| Victor Olofsson R | 10:57 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 15:43 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.31 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 27:17 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.48 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 18:58 | +0.12 | +0.19 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 12:06 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 10:04 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 9:54 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 19:15 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:08 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 16:54 | 3 | −0.17 | +0.31 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 18:46 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.38 | −0.57 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 24:00 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:29 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 16:20 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 13:11 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 16:13 | −0.53 | −0.12 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 61:18 | −0.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.