NJD beat WSH 5–4 in overtime. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 4.7 to 3.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Luke Hughes scored at 4:33 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Mackenzie Blackwood allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:36 |  WSH | Joe Snively from Sonny Milano | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:59 | WSH | Rasmus Sandin from Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 10:18 | WSH | Craig Smith unassisted | 0–3 | 83% → 91% |
| P1 17:06 |  NJD | Erik Haula from Yegor Sharangovich, Luke Hughes | 1–3 | 7% → 15% |
| P2 1:05 | WSH | Tom Wilson from Nick Jensen, Dylan Strome | 1–4 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 18:36 | NJD | Miles WoodPP from Tomas Tatar, Dawson Mercer | 2–4 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 3:17 | NJD | Erik Haula from Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes | 3–4 | 7% → 21% |
| P3 12:23 | NJD | Dougie Hamilton from Damon Severson, Jesper Boqvist | 4–4 | 15% → 49% |
| OT 4:33 | NJD | Luke Hughes from Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Hughes D | 21:13 | 1 | 1 | +1.12 | +0.54 | +0.61 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 23:15 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.47 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 17:47 | 2 | +1.00 | −0.48 | +1.53 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Miles Wood L | 11:06 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.07 | +0.55 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 12:21 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.31 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 19:48 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 19:53 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.26 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.12 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 16:34 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.30 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 20:39 | +0.05 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 17:04 | +0.05 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 10:17 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 20:58 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.50 | −0.54 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 14:27 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.31 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nathan Bastian R | 13:11 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 16:13 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 18:56 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.09 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 20:46 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.56 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 17:24 | −0.81 | −0.47 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 43:22 | +2.13 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 21:05 | −2.89 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Snively C | 12:39 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.16 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 20:25 | +0.39 | +0.52 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 17:39 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.43 | +0.63 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 21:18 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 18:07 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.32 | +0.43 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Irwin D | 13:13 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 10:43 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 19:43 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 11:14 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 18:20 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 11:56 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 11:59 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 16:13 | −0.16 | +0.18 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 23:14 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.53 | +0.73 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.38 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 22:48 | −0.39 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 18:33 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 23:42 | −0.85 | −0.17 | −0.65 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:02 | 1 | −1.09 | −0.52 | −0.54 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 64:33 | −0.65 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.