VAN beat ANA 3–2. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: J.T. Miller scored at 1:26 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 73%. Thatcher Demko saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:14 |  VAN | Brock BoeserPP from Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:12 | VAN | Andrei KuzmenkoPP from Akito Hirose, Thatcher Demko | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P1 17:20 | ANA | Mason McTavishPP from Cam Fowler, Trevor Zegras | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 15:32 | ANA | Drew Helleson from Troy Terry, Trevor Zegras | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 1:26 | VAN | J.T. Miller from Phillip Di Giuseppe, Elias Pettersson | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 14:39 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.02 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 20:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.00 | +0.51 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Quinn Hughes D | 25:42 | +0.43 | +0.38 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 14:46 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.03 | +0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 19:02 | +0.04 | +0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:57 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.37 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.38 | −0.02 | |
| Sheldon Dries C | 12:41 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 15:51 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.28 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Studnicka C | 12:29 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole McWard D | 13:28 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 14:16 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 14:02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 13:43 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 13:33 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Aidan McDonough L | 10:19 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 20:26 | −0.31 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Akito Hirose D | 16:42 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 19:42 | −0.59 | −0.33 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 59:42 | +1.39 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Helleson D | 12:57 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.06 | +0.91 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 8:09 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.06 | +0.79 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 22:45 | +0.21 | +0.26 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 16:59 | +0.16 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 22:11 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.14 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Derek Grant C | 13:27 | +0.01 | +0.15 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 18:24 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 12:40 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 18:17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Bo Groulx C | 15:56 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 18:00 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 16:07 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 16:23 | −0.21 | +0.18 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 23:32 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Jones L | 13:27 | −0.36 | +0.02 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 13:22 | −0.55 | −0.01 | −0.53 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 18:52 | 2 | −0.60 | −0.23 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 13:33 | −0.62 | +0.21 | −0.63 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 58:45 | +0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.