NSH beat CGY 3–2 in a shootout. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mikael Backlund scored at 8:03 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 22% to 52%. Juuse Saros saved 2.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:49 | NSH | Egor Afanasyev from Mark Jankowski | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 7:41 |  CGY | Troy Stecher from Andrew Mangiapane, Dillon Dube | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 4:02 | NSH | Zachary Sanford from Cody Glass, Jake Livingstone | 2–1 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 8:03 | CGY | Mikael Backlund from Andrew Mangiapane, Jonathan Huberdeau | 2–2 | 22% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egor Afanasyev L | 7:37 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.09 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Zachary Sanford L | 15:51 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.19 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 17:02 | +0.38 | −0.32 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.99 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 23:25 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.36 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.99 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 10:39 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Livingstone D | 14:50 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Spencer Stastney D | 16:03 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 12:53 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Cal Foote D | 12:55 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 12:59 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 24:19 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 18:56 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 12:05 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 22:29 | −0.26 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 23:42 | −0.59 | −0.31 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.38 | −0.01 | −0.33 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 24:29 | −0.66 | −0.33 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 18:35 | −0.90 | −0.09 | −0.63 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 18:17 | −0.91 | −0.21 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 64:54 | +2.47 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Stecher D | 12:08 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.10 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 19:12 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.21 | −0.21 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.65 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 17:45 | 2 | +0.35 | +0.21 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 26:15 | +0.17 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 25:11 | +0.13 | +0.24 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:59 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.31 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.51 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:09 | −0.01 | +0.24 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.21 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 13:09 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 7:36 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Walker Duehr R | 7:38 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 10:47 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:32 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 26:00 | −0.25 | +0.18 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 13:45 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 20:14 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 14:31 | −0.49 | +0.12 | −0.61 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.17 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:09 | −0.50 | +0.08 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 15:00 | −0.68 | +0.03 | −0.70 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 65:00 | −0.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.