MIN beat CHI 4–2. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Marcus Johansson scored at 16:47 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 49% to 90%. Filip Gustavsson saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:32 | MIN | Matt Boldy from Marcus Johansson, Calen Addison | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 18:11 | CHI | Joey Anderson from Boris Katchouk | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 2:23 | CHI | Anders Bjork from Buddy Robinson, Andreas Athanasiou | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 14:00 | MIN | Marcus JohanssonSH unassisted | 2–2 | 12% → 47% |
| P3 16:47 | MIN | Marcus Johansson from Matt Boldy | 3–2 | 49% → 90% |
| P3 18:59 | MIN | Gustav NyquistEN from Ryan Hartman | 4–2 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Johansson L | 18:38 | 2 | 1 | +1.68 | −0.04 | +1.52 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Matt Boldy L | 19:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.10 | +0.56 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Jon Merrill D | 21:29 | +0.10 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 20:51 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 13:44 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 21:49 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Petan C | 11:09 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 18:25 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 13:23 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 15:36 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 19:03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 14:15 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Klingberg D | 21:38 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 15:18 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calen Addison D | 12:59 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:02 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 12:47 | −0.31 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 12:36 | −0.50 | +0.05 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 60:00 | +1.60 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Anderson R | 14:06 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.15 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 13:33 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.12 | +0.63 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Englund D | 14:41 | +0.28 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 19:14 | +0.15 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 13:52 | +0.09 | +0.13 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 16:01 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Caleb Jones D | 21:46 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 16:44 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 15:36 | −0.02 | +0.17 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 22:46 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Wagner L | 11:15 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 15:43 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Buddy Robinson R | 13:14 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 18:37 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Reese Johnson C | 13:07 | −0.23 | +0.09 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 20:33 | −0.33 | +0.14 | −0.65 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 18:55 | −0.47 | −0.12 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 18:05 | −0.62 | −0.17 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Stalock G | 58:12 | −1.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.