BUF beat NYR 3–2 in a shootout. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Casey Mittelstadt scored at 8:13 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 18% to 48%. Devon Levi saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:24 | BUF | JJ Peterka from Jack Quinn, Tyson Jost | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 1:01 |  NYR | Artemi PanarinPP from Mika Zibanejad, Patrick Kane | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 11:12 | NYR | Artemi Panarin from Vladimir Tarasenko | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 8:13 | BUF | Casey Mittelstadt from Alex Tuch | 2–2 | 18% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 21:13 | 1 | +1.69 | +0.09 | +0.58 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.99 | |
| Owen Power D | 25:37 | +1.06 | +0.32 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 9:15 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.11 | +0.50 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 28:19 | +0.11 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 25:56 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 6:30 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 7:58 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:25 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 7:47 | −0.08 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 30:40 | −0.09 | +0.20 | −0.27 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 15:17 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:21 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:01 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 20:23 | −0.28 | +0.17 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 10:02 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.13 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 18:55 | −0.36 | +0.25 | −0.53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 23:33 | 1 | −0.91 | −0.03 | −0.39 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.51 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 19:36 | −0.93 | +0.20 | −0.50 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devon Levi G | 65:00 | +2.02 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin L | 19:14 | 2 | +1.13 | +0.00 | +1.58 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.51 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:39 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.59 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 20:18 | +0.16 | +0.31 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 12:18 | +0.13 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 9:54 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 17:18 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 26:15 | −0.06 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 11:21 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 21:41 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 15:55 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 18:35 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 17:12 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 18:56 | −0.34 | +0.03 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 17:44 | −0.50 | −0.32 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 14:36 | −0.52 | +0.22 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.51 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 20:28 | −0.61 | −0.57 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 19:15 | 1 | −0.78 | +0.04 | −0.49 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.39 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 17:03 | −0.93 | −0.29 | −0.66 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 65:00 | +1.72 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.