COL beat ANA 5–4 in overtime. COL also won the expected-goals battle 5.8 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon scored on the power play at 4:15 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Pavel Francouz allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:15 | COL | J.T. Compher from Valeri Nichushkin, Erik Johnson | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 13:58 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Samuel Girard, Devon Toews | 2–0 | 70% → 86% |
| P2 15:15 | ANA | Frank Vatrano from Trevor Zegras, Ryan Strome | 2–1 | 13% → 30% |
| P2 18:09 | ANA | Adam Henrique from Cam Fowler | 2–2 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 5:18 | ANA | Frank Vatrano from Troy Terry, Kevin Shattenkirk | 2–3 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 7:25 | ANA | Brett Leason from Derek Grant, Jayson Megna | 2–4 | 81% → 95% |
| P3 12:09 | COL | Mikko RantanenPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews | 3–4 | 3% → 15% |
| P3 15:28 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichushkin | 4–4 | 18% → 49% |
| OT 4:15 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Devon Toews, Mikko Rantanen | 5–4 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen R | 25:19 | 2 | 2 | +2.67 | +0.80 | +1.47 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.10 |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 25:15 | 2 | 1 | +1.70 | +0.80 | +0.67 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.07 |
| J.T. Compher L | 23:42 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.63 | +0.48 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Devon Toews D | 30:12 | 3 | +0.87 | +0.93 | −0.30 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 22:37 | 2 | +0.35 | +0.77 | −0.38 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 24:56 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.26 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 21:34 | +0.20 | +0.24 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 11:17 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brad Hunt D | 10:44 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 21:20 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.27 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Meyers C | 9:04 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 6:58 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 13:32 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 10:47 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 10:12 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Denis Malgin C | 9:46 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 17:45 | −0.25 | +0.17 | −0.61 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 12:07 | −0.51 | +0.09 | −0.61 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pavel Francouz G | 64:15 | −2.28 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Vatrano R | 16:37 | 2 | +0.97 | −0.38 | +1.56 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Leason R | 8:16 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.07 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 19:20 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.53 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 15:24 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 13:30 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayson Megna C | 12:10 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 18:52 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Jones L | 11:58 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton White D | 17:43 | −0.30 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 15:03 | −0.31 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 14:17 | −0.41 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 16:09 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 26:16 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.32 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 21:19 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.39 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 25:15 | −0.52 | −0.53 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 18:10 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.40 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 18:03 | −0.72 | −0.54 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 13:28 | 1 | −0.76 | −0.49 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 64:15 | +0.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.