VAN beat CGY 3–2 in a shootout. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 4.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nazem Kadri scored on the power play at 6:06 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 21% to 48%. Thatcher Demko saved 4.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:03 | VAN | Cole McWard from Dakota Joshua, Jack Studnicka | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:29 | VAN | Elias PetterssonSH from J.T. Miller | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P3 0:38 |  CGY | Elias Lindholm from Dillon Dube, Tyler Toffoli | 1–2 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 6:06 | CGY | Nazem KadriPP from Noah Hanifin | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tanev D | 21:15 | +0.28 | +0.35 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:10 | +0.22 | +0.23 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:45 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.15 | +0.43 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.39 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 14:25 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 24:09 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:05 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.22 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Milan Lucic L | 12:13 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 25:25 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Walker Duehr R | 11:43 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 14:43 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 17:53 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.30 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nick Ritchie L | 11:44 | −0.18 | +0.17 | −0.32 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 12:39 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:30 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 14:14 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 13:35 | −0.52 | +0.18 | −0.51 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:34 | 1 | −0.53 | +0.14 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.51 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:58 | −0.88 | −0.19 | −0.39 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 65:00 | +1.14 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole McWard D | 11:25 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.05 | +0.92 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 10:31 | +0.43 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.65 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 23:10 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.36 | +0.68 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.17 | |
| Conor Garland R | 14:42 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 12:57 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 19:03 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 21:15 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 27:34 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Akito Hirose D | 19:44 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 15:06 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 21:51 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.25 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.21 | |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 21:18 | −0.32 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Studnicka C | 11:55 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.10 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Vitali Kravtsov R | 10:07 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sheldon Dries C | 12:00 | −0.51 | −0.35 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 13:27 | −0.58 | −0.39 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 21:35 | −0.64 | −0.17 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 23:20 | −0.68 | +0.21 | −0.88 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 65:00 | +4.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.