ARI beat ANA 5–4 in overtime. ARI also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Barrett Hayton scored at 4:00 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Olle Eriksson Ek allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:12 | ARI | Christian Fischer from J.J. Moser, Jack McBain | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 14:21 | ANA | Adam Henrique from Ryan Strome, Cam Fowler | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 6:33 | ARI | Lawson CrousePP from Travis Boyd, Victor Soderstrom | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 9:06 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Nick Schmaltz, J.J. Moser | 1–3 | 74% → 88% |
| P2 12:01 | ANA | Ryan Strome from Max Jones, Derek Grant | 2–3 | 11% → 26% |
| P3 5:46 | ANA | Adam HenriquePP from Ryan Strome, Trevor Zegras | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 18:06 | ANA | Max Jones from Derek Grant | 4–3 | 50% → 93% |
| P3 19:25 | ARI | Matias MaccelliPP from Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz | 4–4 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 4:00 | ARI | Barrett Hayton from Matias Maccelli, Juuso Välimäki | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Henrique C | 18:06 | 2 | +1.46 | +0.13 | +1.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Jones L | 13:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.14 | +0.47 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Strome C | 17:29 | 1 | 2 | +0.22 | −0.32 | +0.68 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.05 |
| Colton White D | 17:05 | +0.20 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 16:07 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 17:59 | +0.08 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayson Megna C | 11:11 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Maxime Comtois L | 11:10 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 15:58 | −0.04 | +0.17 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 14:01 | −0.06 | +0.35 | −0.60 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 9:55 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 13:20 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 13:44 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 19:56 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 15:31 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 17:14 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 38:54 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 23:50 | −0.63 | −0.17 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Olle Eriksson Ek G | 63:59 | −1.25 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matias Maccelli L | 20:38 | 1 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.22 | +0.85 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Barrett Hayton C | 18:18 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.16 | +0.50 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 16:21 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.05 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 15:10 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.04 | +0.53 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 22:55 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Mackey D | 16:10 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 17:44 | +0.19 | +0.14 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 22:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.07 | +0.23 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Laurent Dauphin C | 10:41 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 9:36 | −0.06 | +0.19 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 11:02 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 19:49 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Joshua Brown D | 19:18 | −0.26 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 11:35 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Milos Kelemen L | 9:05 | −0.27 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 24:24 | 2 | −0.32 | +0.05 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Soderstrom D | 19:14 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 22:21 | 2 | −0.43 | −0.17 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Prosvetov G | 63:10 | −0.94 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.