SEA beat ARI 4–2. SEA also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jared McCann scored at 19:36 of the first, moving SEA’s win probability from 53% to 72%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:36 |  SEA | Jared McCann from Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 0:28 | SEA | Vince Dunn unassisted | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 5:52 | SEA | Jordan Eberle from Jared McCann | 0–3 | 87% → 95% |
| P2 12:00 | ARI | Barrett Hayton from Matias Maccelli, Lawson Crouse | 1–3 | 3% → 11% |
| P3 3:37 | SEA | Matty Beniers from Jordan Eberle, Jared McCann | 1–4 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 19:20 | ARI | Laurent Dauphin from Clayton Keller | 2–4 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett Hayton C | 14:57 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.04 | +0.87 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Laurent Dauphin C | 12:17 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.03 | +0.52 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Joshua Brown D | 19:16 | +0.16 | +0.08 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 10:56 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 14:34 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 19:47 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 20:45 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:36 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 15:04 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 19:13 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Soderstrom D | 18:07 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 15:06 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 16:07 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 19:38 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.15 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Milos Kelemen L | 8:56 | −0.33 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 17:01 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:40 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Mackey D | 20:00 | −0.50 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | −0.66 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Dunn D | 24:45 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.17 | +0.71 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 15:27 | 1 | 2 | +0.77 | +0.15 | +0.60 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jared McCann L | 18:09 | 1 | 2 | +0.72 | +0.12 | +0.56 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brandon Tanev L | 12:51 | +0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 17:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.03 |
| Will Borgen D | 15:21 | +0.16 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 23:44 | +0.15 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 18:42 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 16:35 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 12:51 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 12:48 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 11:45 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:53 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 17:16 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:36 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 14:38 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 11:42 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 17:07 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.56 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 60:00 | +0.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.