EDM beat ANA 3–1. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Klim Kostin scored at 9:36 of the second, moving EDM’s win probability from 47% to 68%. Jack Campbell saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 9:36 | EDM | Klim Kostin from Mattias Janmark | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 12:46 | EDM | Nick Bjugstad from Klim Kostin | 2–0 | 69% → 86% |
| P3 4:56 |  ANA | Troy Terry from Simon Benoit, Adam Henrique | 2–1 | 8% → 24% |
| P3 18:18 | EDM | Zach HymanEN from Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 3–1 | 92% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Klim Kostin C | 11:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.03 | +0.32 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 13:20 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.07 | +0.32 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 11:57 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 16:36 | +0.22 | +0.22 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 16:18 | +0.17 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 19:31 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 18:26 | +0.07 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 19:37 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 18:13 | +0.03 | +0.15 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 21:24 | −0.03 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 18:36 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 17:34 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 18:37 | −0.07 | +0.20 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 12:16 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 23:00 | −0.19 | +0.10 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 11:58 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 17:18 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Devin Shore C | 11:21 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 60:00 | +1.27 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Henrique C | 15:04 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Troy Terry R | 22:13 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.23 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 17:30 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Maxime Comtois L | 12:28 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Harrington D | 20:30 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 5:03 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 15:44 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 13:18 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 12:20 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colton White D | 17:52 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 12:51 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 13:46 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 17:28 | −0.30 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 20:17 | −0.31 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 15:06 | −0.32 | −0.15 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 20:24 | −0.34 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 20:06 | −0.40 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 26:13 | −0.50 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 59:47 | +0.71 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.