CGY beat WPG 3–1. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Walker Duehr scored at 4:08 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 75%. Jacob Markstrom saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:42 |  WPG | Kyle ConnorPP from Nikolaj Ehlers, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 6:06 | CGY | Andrew Mangiapane from Mikael Backlund | 1–1 | 27% → 46% |
| P3 4:08 | CGY | Walker Duehr from Trevor Lewis, Nikita Zadorov | 2–1 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 10:40 | CGY | Nikita Zadorov from Jonathan Huberdeau, Andrew Mangiapane | 3–1 | 81% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Zadorov D | 16:04 | 1 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.17 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Walker Duehr R | 8:51 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.08 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 17:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.19 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Chris Tanev D | 17:29 | +0.26 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 8:34 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 21:57 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 13:43 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 11:53 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 16:16 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 21:11 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:59 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 10:55 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:46 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Dillon Dube C | 14:04 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 15:04 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 18:38 | −0.41 | −0.10 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 21:09 | −0.59 | −0.03 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 16:06 | −0.81 | −0.03 | −0.56 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 59:48 | +2.07 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor L | 20:26 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.07 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 12:23 | +0.26 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 22:56 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 21:15 | +0.02 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 7:38 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 13:29 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 14:10 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 15:00 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 17:02 | −0.12 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Saku Maenalanen R | 8:19 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 12:15 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 14:58 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 18:49 | −0.26 | +0.11 | −0.41 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:32 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 21:06 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 12:22 | −0.51 | −0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 24:35 | −0.60 | −0.04 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 17:55 | 1 | −0.63 | +0.01 | −0.58 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 58:50 | −0.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.